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wake me up

…when john mccain breaks 44% in a national poll.

obama leads mccain 47% to 41% in this recent poll.

there have also been some polls that show mccain in the lead.

what do they all have in common? obama goes up and down, but i haven’t seen him go lower than 45% in any poll. mccain stays more steady, but never seems to break 44%. this tells me that there’s a significant chunk of people that lean toward obama, but haven’t solidly decided for him yet. if mccain’s percentage rises above 44% without a corresponding rise in the lead for obama, that means that those obama leaners are starting to break for mccain, which may be trouble. so i think 44% is the target to watch for. when he breaks that, everyone will need to take a hard look at what that means. until then, the polls can bounce around and it won’t mean much.

in my opinion. i’ll put the crystal ball away now.