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cautiously optimistic

ok…two days to go. and this article on evangelical voting makes sense and is making me feel a bit better.

as puts it, “as everyone knows, bush supports amending the constitution to forbid same sex marriages, although he knows full well that this amendment has zero chance in congress and will be completely forgotten after the election. the purpose of supporting it was to rally the 4 million evangelicals who didn’t vote for him last time. it didn’t work. the los angeles times reports that he has less support among evangelicals than he had last time. like other americans, they are also concerned about health care, jobs and other issues. that’s probably why last week and said it was ok with him if the states allow civil unions. in other words, forget the evangelicals and concentrate on the soccer moms in the midwest who are fairly tolerant of civil unions. well, that’s politics for you.”

except, of course, they capitalized everything. fools.

also: bush still not above 50% in any poll in any state that matters. in fact, he’s really around 47%-48%. 50% would worry me–historically, though, incumbents get their final poll numbers at election time.

also: the sunday pundits started to mention eminem. if the chris matthews types realize that the young vote may really be mobilizing, there’s a good chance it really is.

also: a lot of reporting on the “october surprise” of the osama bin laden tape being basically a wash as nearly everyone has their mind made up.

also: a lot of reporting on how the big story on wednesday may turn out to be how inaccurate the polls were this time. if that turns out to be the cse, it ain’t going to be because bush blew out the election. that’s for sure.

also: a lot of reporting on how there seems to be a number of moderate republicans who are going to vote a straight republican ticket, but hold their nose and vote for kerry. not many democrats are going to hold their nose and vote for bush.

also: just my personal opinion, but i’m betting that “hawaii is in play for the republicans” is a giant smokescreen to get the base excited for some karl-rove-wet-dream reason. hawaii for bush my ass.

also: a lot of other crap that i’d tell you, but i have to go to the grocery store. homemade lasagne with homemade mozzarella for dinner. be very jealous.

i tried really hard this morning, while watching the sunday morning yell-fests, to not filter out the anti-kerry stuff just to make myself falsely happy. but the best that the pro-bush people could come up with was “bush wins in a squeaker,” which, along with bush suddenly pandering to the middle on the subject of gay marriage at the last minute, tells me that they know something.

and they don’t like what they know.

and if on wednesday it turns out i’ve deluded myself, i won’t like thinking that i thought i knew it.

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